2021 年能源金属价格走势：供需矛盾成重要因子，稀土价格继续上行

2021 年能源金属价格走势：供需矛盾成重要因子，稀土价格继续上行

（报告出品/作者：民生证券、邱祖学、张航、张建业）

1 2021年回顾：能源革命下的供需矛盾是能源金属价格的重要因素

1.1 供需矛盾凸显，能源金属价格强势上涨

供需矛盾下能源金属强势上涨。2021年以来小金属价格普遍上涨，涨幅较大的金属品种有工业级碳酸锂（+412.12%）、电解锰（+175.18%）、钴金属（+76.16%）。电解锰价格上涨主要因为能源消费双控政策影响主产区产能，供应暂时偏紧导致价格快速上涨。锂、钴等新能源品种价格上涨更多是因为下游新能源汽车放量持续超预期，供给端释放不足。

供需双击，稀土价格持续上涨。回顾稀土价格历史走势，大多为脉冲式行情，体现出涨跌快的特点，背后的驱动因素多为供给端的扰动，包括收储、打击违法行为、环保等。稀土价格自去年以来进入上行通道，虽然中途有所回落，但并未改变上涨趋势，背后的原因除了供给端的短期扰动，还有新能源引领的需求持续旺盛以及海外矿山开发受限等因素。稀土价格整体表现为供需双击，价格稳步上涨。截至2021年12月31日，氧化镨价格为88.5万元/吨，同比上涨134.44%，氧化钕价格为90.5万元/吨，同比上涨76.93%。

1.2 板块行情：2021年有色金属板块表现亮眼，能源金属领涨

经济回暖、工业金属供给受限、新能源汽车持续超预期等因素带动有色金属板块在2021年表现亮眼。2021年上证指数上涨4.80%，沪深300指数下跌5.20%，SW有色金属行业指数涨幅高达73.24%，在SW28个板块中排名第一。整体来看，经济回暖、新能源汽车持续超预期、金属消费普遍向好，加之能耗双控等政策对部分金属供给侧的抑制，产能释放受阻，金属价格持续上涨，有色金属行业整体表现大幅跑赢大盘。

从子行业来看，SW有色金属子行业中非金属新材料、稀土、锂业板块表现亮眼。从SW有色金属子行业来看，稀土板块上涨213%，非金属新材料板块上涨168%，锂业板块上涨108%。非金属新材料板块主要受益于相关稀土等产品价格大幅上涨，稀土板块主要受益于下游需求爆发，锂业板块主要受益于新能源汽车持续超预期，主要标的产品需求预期向好。

具体标的方面，2021年实现超额收益的标的的主要逻辑为：供需矛盾下的金属价格大幅上涨以及公司自身产能扩张带来的量价齐升。2021年能源金属板块涨幅最高的前五名标的为江特电气（+456%）、藏格矿业（+411%）、西藏矿业（+309%）、西藏城投（+305%）、盐湖股份（+300%）；2021年能源金属板块涨幅最低的五名标的为寒瑞钴业（-15%）、圣屯矿业（+17%）、雅化集团（+31%）、华友钴业（+39%）、赣锋锂业（+41%），主要是因为去年9月以来，大宗商品与股票市场走势分化明显，部分公司出现较大幅度回调。

2022年展望：增长曲线更陡峭，锂资源溢价有望

2.1 全球双碳目标明确，电气化增长曲线将更加陡峭

中国承诺2030年实现碳排放达峰、2060年实现碳中和。2020年全球二氧化碳排放量达319.8亿吨，其中我国排放量达98.94亿吨，占比30.93%。在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上，中国向世界宣布，将加大国家自愿捐款力度，采取更加有力的政策措施，力争2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值，力争2060年前实现碳中和。2021年5月17日，生态环境部根据《碳排放权交易管理办法（试行）》组织制定了《碳排放权登记管理规则（试行）》《碳排放权交易管理规则（试行）》和《碳排放权结算管理规则（试行）》，自公告之日起施行； 2021年9月22日，中共中央、国务院发布《关于全面准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰和碳中和工作的意见》，强调2025/2030/2060年各项目标，积极发展风能、太阳能、生物质能、海洋能、地热能等非化石能源，深化能源体制机制改革，完善碳排放交易市场。

为实现碳中和，我国提出全面推进能源消费方式转变，构建多元化清洁能源供给体系。全面推进能源消费方式转变：坚持节约资源和保护环境的基本国策，坚持节能优先方针，树立节能就是增加资源、减少污染、造福人类的理念，把节能融入经济社会发展全过程、各领域。构建多元化清洁能源供给体系：立足基本国情和发展阶段，确立生态优先、绿色发展导向，坚持在保护中发展、在发展中保护，深化能源供给侧结构性改革，优先发展非化石能源，推动化石能源清洁高效开发利用，完善能源储运调峰体系，促进区域多能源互补协调发展。

碳中和推动全球能源体系重塑，交通运输领域电气化首当其冲，电气化增长曲线将更加陡峭。在全球温室气体排放中，交通运输是继发电和供热之后的第二大排放部门，其中陆地交通运输占排放比重最大。因此，乘用车、客车、专用车、重型卡车的电动化是迈向碳中和的关键环节。根据IEA和ICCT统计，以2018年数据为样本，全球二氧化碳排放中：74.5%为陆地车辆运输，其中45.1%来自客运（如客车、客车、摩托车等），29.4%来自货运（如重型卡车）；11.6%为航空排放；10.6%为航运排放；约1%为轨道交通排放；其余2.2%为石油、天然气、淡水、蒸汽等管道运输排放。 根据IEA发布的全球碳中和路线图，2020年至2050年，全球光伏和风电发电占比需从约10%提升至70%（支撑可再生能源占比提升至90%），同时，纯电动、插电式混合动力及氢燃料汽车全球销量渗透率需从5%提升至100%。

2.2 锂资源溢价仍乐观，钴、镍、稀土价格或稳中震荡

全球电动化加速：受益于海外新能源汽车产业扶持政策出台，终端需求大幅增长。随着欧洲新能源汽车市场持续超预期表现，日韩高镍正极用优质电池级氢氧化锂需求大幅增长。据海关数据显示，氢氧化锂出口量可观，2021年1-11月出口66013吨，同比增长34.2%。

碳排放法规倒逼车企转型电动化，欧洲高镍需求大幅增加。为满足欧洲日益严格的碳排放标准，全球各大汽车集团均在规划未来电动车转型计划，并投入电动车转型，包括自动驾驶技术研发、推出全新纯电动产品等。欧洲车型大多采用高镍三元电池。随着欧洲新能源汽车市场表现持续超预期，日韩高镍正极用高品质电池级氢氧化锂需求大幅增加。

美国新能源汽车扶持政策力度或将加大。2021年美国总统拜登签署行政令提出，到2030年，新能源汽车将占美国新乘用车和轻卡销量的50%。国内新能源汽车不断创下新高。2021年12月，我国新能源汽车产销分别完成51.8万辆和53.1万辆，月度产销量再次打破历史产销纪录。从趋势上看，当月产销环比分别为45.7万辆和45万辆，产销均保持前期上涨趋势，环比分别增长6.7%和11.1%，实现自4月份以来连续第七个月增长。

锂：锂原料稀缺加剧，产业链利润快速向上游转移。从矿业端来看，矿石、盐湖产能高度集中，现货供应市场有限。锂精矿供应吃紧，破产关闭后，全球在产主力矿山仅剩9座，全球锂资源大多锁定长单。考虑到2021年新增锂精矿有限，全球优质原料稀缺。今年锂精矿拍卖价格创历史新高，产业链利润快速向上游转移。

2021年已完成3场锂精矿拍卖，最新拍卖价格高达2350美元/吨（FOB，5.5%氧化锂品位）。随着部分锂精矿销售模式逐渐转向现货交易，产业链利润或将重新分配。目前产业链各环节中，锂精矿供应商集中度最强（现货卖家仅有银河资源、AMG等），氢氧化锂供应商次之（有效供给集中在赣锋、亚宝、天意、亚化、天齐等厂家）。考虑到电池厂及中游正极材料公司积极的扩产计划及保供要求，上游现有资本支出难以及时满足供给。锂精矿价格有望继续突破新高，锂盐价格有望继续上涨，产业链利润或将不断回流上游。

钴端：2021年底提前复产将加大供给端压力，但随着未来钴产品供需结构中电力需求基数扩大，消费电子领域新能源需求长期向好，以及全球疫情之下南非钴原料运输仍受阻，钴产品价格或将受到一定支撑。

镍：电动汽车需求开启行业新周期，红土镍矿湿法冶金项目成为未来拓展新方向。全球镍资源整体储量丰富，预计资源端不会成为全球镍下游产业发展的主要瓶颈；但另一方面，近年来全球规模大、品位高的硫化镍矿新勘探发现较少，未开发的资源项目以红土镍矿为主，或将成为未来全球镍项目发展的主要方向。另外，我们认为镍铁-高冰镍-硫酸镍工艺的开启本质上是一个经济性问题，假设终端产品均为硫酸镍，则生产工艺经济性红土镍矿HPAL-硫酸镍>红土镍矿RKEF-镍铁-高冰镍-硫酸镍>硫化镍矿-高冰镍-硫酸镍。 镍铁转高冰镍工艺的开启，将使得未来新能源领域的原料局面呈现湿法中间体与高冰镍并存的局面，改变此前的原料格局，一定程度上挤压镍豆的消费预期。但考虑到成本差异，当镍铁与硫酸镍出现明显价差时，市场将有转产的动力。

从镍供需面来看，2022年随着印尼镍铁及湿法冶炼项目的投产、海外镍冶炼项目的复工，原生镍供给量将加速增长；需求端方面，国内房地产竣工周期仍在进行中，化工行业也处于扩产年，不锈钢等传统领域需求依旧旺盛，新能源汽车市场保持快速发展，镍供需两旺。我们认为疫情对镍供给仍存在干扰，供给压力或相对有限。我们预计2022年原生镍整体供需平衡，供需缺口由2021年的13.4万吨收窄至1.3万吨。节奏方面，上半年原生镍供需仍将维持偏紧态势，下半年或将逐步缓解。 相对整体供需，我们认为2022年结构性问题会更加突出。青山高品位镍冰铜进度缓慢，硫酸镍一线供需缺口依然较大。据我们测算，2022年硫酸镍吃紧导致的精炼镍缺口或达6万吨。目前精炼镍库存在10万吨水平，库存或继续下降。低库存背景下的去库存将显著提升镍价弹性，精炼镍短缺将成为推高镍价的主导力量，预计2022年镍均价将达18万元/吨。

3 锂：供需矛盾难化解，“超级循环”方兴未艾

3.1 全球锂资源充足，刚需下迎来“超级循环”

锂需求长期刚性无需担忧。作为自然界最轻、标准电位水平最低的金属元素，锂是天然的电池金属，而锂电池的研发和产业化更多的是如何控制其活性，实现商业化应用；同时锂资源丰富，足以支撑未来全球大规模动力和储能需求。我们认为锂电池将具有长期刚性需求，至少在高比能量动力领域是如此。

全球锂资源并不稀缺，可以支撑未来全球的电气化需求。据2020年USGS统计，全球锂储量2100万吨，已探明资源量8600万吨，按照未来全球100%电气化率（年销量9000万辆纯电动汽车），以及远期20%的资源回收率计算，足够使用100年以上。其资源储量与未来需求的比值远超石油和主要基本金属。另外，锂作为过去小众金属，目前资源查明率并不高，未来随着电池金属需求的爆发和价格的上涨，资源勘探潜力还是很大的。比如过去并不被看好的粘土锂，近些年也开始进入资源商的视野，探明资源储量大幅增加。

重视锂资源战略价值，拥抱刚需下的“超级周期”。但需要注意的是，鉴于全球规模大、品位高、易开发的锂资源矿藏分布不均，以及现有锂提取技术的限制，我们认为资源丰富并不意味着实体产业和投资者可以忽视锂资源项目的布局。作为电动时代的“白油”、锂电池的“粮食”，未来锂原料供需边际错配可能造成价格大幅波动。

3.2 供给：短期供给仍有限，等待2023年后新项目入市

3.2.1 2022年增量仍将集中，扩张来自棕地项目

2022年资源端新增产能有限且集中，主要来自成熟棕地项目的扩张。近期西澳锂矿（产能复工、产能爬坡）和南美盐湖（SQM等）产能释放仍构成最明显的供给增量。我们预计2022年全球锂产量将增加约19万吨至74.6万吨LCE，其中矿石提锂产量增加约9.3万吨LCE，盐湖提锂产量增加约9.7万吨LCE。除项目外，2022年的产量增长几乎全部来自棕地项目的产能扩张。

澳洲矿山方面，2022年主要增量来自于产能爬坡及旗下工厂复工，计划于2021年Q4分阶段复工，目标2022年中旬达到年产能18-20万干吨，但对供应端影响有限。同时，澳洲在产矿山仅有Mt、MT、等4座，其中产能仍被天齐锂业及ALB锁定，MT主要供应股东MIN及赣锋锂业，现货市场仅供应Mt及部分锂精矿，锂精矿现货供应仍将偏紧。

2）盐湖方面，2022年主要增量来自海外，新增产能或将集中在2022年底前，但需关注产能爬坡进度。当年盐湖新增产能合计17.6万吨LCE，主要包括SQM扩产6万吨碳酸锂、ALB扩产4万吨碳酸锂、一期项目4万吨碳酸锂投产等。考虑到产能爬坡等因素，2021-2022年供应端或将持续紧张。同时，每年10月至次年4月，受天然气供应限制及天气等原因，青海盐湖碳酸锂产量将出现季节性下滑，对供应端也将造成一定影响。

3.2.2 固体锂矿：澳洲矿仍占主导，但未来将形成多元化供应体系

即刻增量仍来自澳洲矿山，长期来看澳洲矿山仍将占据主导地位。整合出清后西澳矿商集中度大幅提升，已从小型资源公司时代进入新兴巨头时代。凭借优良的资源禀赋和得天独厚的基础设施及地理优势，我们认为即刻（2022-2023）全球硬岩锂矿产量增量仍将来自澳洲矿山。长期来看，我们预计全球固体锂矿总产量将从2020年的约24.1万吨LCE大幅增至2025年的84.2万吨LCE，其中澳洲矿山仍将是主要供应。

展望未来，固态锂矿多元化供应格局有望逐步形成，澳洲以外主要增量将来自中国。展望明年，我们预计全球增量主要来自澳洲、中国、巴西。至2025年，除上述国家和地区外，来自北美、非洲、欧洲等地的新增产能值得关注。其中，价格无疑是决定供应量的关键因素，若锂化合物价格维持高位，我们预计将刺激巴西、非洲、北美、欧洲等地的资源项目提前上市。

中国锂辉石矿山开发将迎来加速期。中国本土锂辉石矿山主要集中在川西的甘孜、阿坝、南疆等地，但新疆可可托海矿山已经关闭。目前，规模最大、最具前景的锂辉石项目主要集中在川西甘孜州、阿坝州的吉家卡、克林矿山。在沉寂多年后，川西锂辉石矿产资源开发自2019年开始解冻重启，未来有望迎来加速发展期。川西锂辉石矿山直接生产成本较低，且澳洲矿山到四川锂盐厂的运费较低，现阶段，川西锂辉石矿山有望构成全球锂资源供应的有效补充。

吉家卡矿区锂矿包括吉家卡134号脉（荣杰公司旗下）、雅江措拉锂矿、德琴农巴锂矿、木龙锂矿、吉家卡新3号脉。截至2021年底，在产锂矿为荣杰公司旗下吉家卡134号脉，选矿能力105万吨/年。元阳坝250万吨/年（折合锂精矿47万吨）锂矿选矿项目正按照环评规定程序推进，未来有望成为四川锂矿主要供应商之一。

科林矿区锂矿包括李家沟锂矿（隶属于四川能源电力和雅化集团）、马尔康当巴锂矿、叶龙沟锂矿（隶属于盛鑫锂能）、观音桥锂矿和马尔康锂矿（原隶属于尼科国润）。截至2021年底，在产锂矿为马尔康当巴锂矿和叶龙沟锂矿。其中叶龙沟锂矿目前选矿产能为40.5万吨/年，折合LCE约1万吨；李家沟锂矿规划产出17-18万吨/年锂精矿，我们预计2022年将逐步增加。科林矿未来有望成为四川锂矿供给的重要增量。

我国云母提锂技术日趋成熟，未来有望成为锂资源的有效补充。锂云母是一种低品位固体锂矿资源，全球主要集中在我国宜春、江西、河北、内蒙古等地，其中江西储量最为丰富。在锂盐价格低迷时期，云母提锂的制约因素是成本高、渣量大（无法有效处理）、品质稍差。但随着硫酸盐焙烧法的广泛应用和锂盐价格的快速上涨，成本和技术已不再是云母提锂扩张的阻碍，而是前端长石粉的消化、后端锂尾矿的处理以及综合利用。目前，随着永兴材料一期项目的建成，云母提锂的综合回收利用已经找到了完美的解决方案，未来有望快速扩张。

随着国轩高科、CATL等下游电池厂商的进入，我们预计中国云母提锂发展将迎来加速期。在国内锂辉石产量预期不高的背景下，云母提锂已成为高效的原料来源。我们预计产量将从2020年的约3.1万吨LCE快速增长至2025年的约8.8万吨，其中增量主要来自永兴材料（一期、二期项目及未来与CATL的合作项目）、江特自有矿山和414矿山。

3.2.3 盐湖提锂：南美盐湖快速增容，中国盐湖成熟

全球锂资源以盐湖卤水为主，盐湖提锂有望成为未来全球主要供给。全球锂资源约60%为盐湖卤水型锂资源，中国锂资源约80%为卤水型锂资源（包括盐湖卤水、油田卤水等）。从资源储量来看，全球TWh时代需加大卤水提锂项目开发。从单体资源量来看，盐湖、粘土型项目资源规模通常巨大，而固体锂矿资源量通常有限。

区分矿石提锂与盐湖提锂，由于均为高增长蓝海市场，未来3-5年矿石与盐湖提锂仍将保持互补性，矿石发挥工艺流程成熟、生产周期相对较短的优势，盐湖则展现单项资源规模大、现金成本低的优势，但我们预计2022年起全球盐湖提锂占比将小幅提升。

南美盐湖储量快速增长，有望成为未来供给主力。从全球分布来看，卤水锂资源主要集中在南美“锂三角”地区（智利、阿根廷、玻利维亚）和中国青藏高原，无论是资源禀赋、产能还是拓展潜力，南美盐湖都占有绝对优势。我们预计全球主要盐湖产能将从2020年的约26万吨增至2025年的74万吨，产量将从2020年的约19万吨增至2025年的59万吨。从全球来看，目前盐湖提锂的主要产能来自于SQM旗下盐湖、其位于盐湖中的La Negra锂盐工厂以及其盐湖项目； 从扩大进步的角度来看，上面的全球主要生产能力将来自上述盐湖项目和 - 项目（/LAC合资企业）和Sal de Vida项目（在 ）（在 ）中，我们也将在南美迅速提供新的能源。

中国的盐湖提取在锂资源上的自给自足及其战略重要性的重大责任是在全球范围内经历了巨大的发展，因为锂的战略重要性是在全球范围内供应属于全球盐的材料，而这主要是属于全球含量的材料。在一方面，“双重流通”的资源保证了，在风险控制的前提下，有必要在全球高质量的锂资源中增加投资和开发工作。 考虑到全面的采矿条件，资源捐赠和其他因素，我们认为青海的主要盐湖（，和）将承担中国在锂资源中自给自足的责任。

从中国的盐湖中提取锂，我们相信将来从边际供应转向主流。同时，基于青海的技术积累也溢出了西藏的宝库，预计 Salt Lake有望成为西藏盐湖的主要力量。

3.2.4成熟的锂资源项目很少，急需高锂价格来刺激资本支出

成熟的资源项目是稀缺的，高锂价格刺激了资本支出投资，等待2023年以后推出的新项目。目前，成熟的锂项目主要集中在西澳大利亚州的矿山，南美洲的盐湖，家庭盐湖，矿山， Mines矿山和MICA液化资源。在2021年的数据中，在现有的锂提取项目中，从盐湖中提取锂的成本是最低的，其中大多数是40,000元/吨/吨。生产扩展。

从投资恢复期的角度来看，锂提取项目的资本仍然很高。但是，考虑到后来的锂盐加工和其他辅助支出，资本支出仍然很高。

除投资成本外，随着锂需求的增加，ESG成本在锂生产成本中的重要性也将增加，而二氧化碳的二氧化碳矿山的碳含量明显更高。

3.3需求：下游扩展是积极的，全球锂电池的产生正在加速

随着持续的政策刺激，碳排放法规可能会加速。随着欧洲新能源汽车市场的性能持续超出预期，日本和韩国对高质量氢氧化锂氢氧化锂的需求显着增加。

中游正在迅速扩展，需求继续在三元前体中爆炸。霍南·布鲁普（Hunan Brunp）的h1三元前体产量为28,000吨，这是由于旧植物爆炸式爆炸量的降低，已在Q2中恢复，并且预计在下半年的生产能力将更快地释放； 's will be to 100,000 tons in 2021, of which 55,000 tons of self- has the mass stage, and 45,000 tons of joint are . In terms of iron , the newly added iron in the half of the year may 300,000 tons, of which New will by 30,000 tons in the half of the year; Nano 40,000 tons will be put into in July 2021; BYD will 50,000 tons of at the end of the third , 25,000 tons of ; High-Tech的20,000吨磷酸锂将在2021年第三季度投入生产。新的源终端市场的繁荣不断改善，阴极材料制造商正在积极释放生产能力，并且对存货的需求可能会大大增加。

磷酸锂的表现比预期的要好，其安全性和成本优势被突出显示，这可能会在将来推动对碳酸盐的需求，而Byd分别推出了“ CTP”和“ Blade ”技术，从而提供了可靠的技术保证。 2022年，磷酸锂的优势也可以继续使用锂磷酸锂电池业务。 2020年底，预计将早在2021年就建立一条飞行员线。

对于汽车公司，特斯拉在加利福尼亚州的工厂生产的3/y标准版本可能会使用磷酸锂电池G3和P7。 E-QH5，Byd Yuan Plus EV和SAIC Audi Q5 E-Tron还可以使用磷酸锂电池，除了在动力场上，磷酸锂也有望在诸如储能和5G基站等应用领域中继续增加。

从下游阳性材料制造商的需求，氧化锂，磷酸锂和约6系列以及下方的三元材料的需求继续推动碳酸盐的增加，同时预计高核材料将继续增强液化材料。从2020年到2025年的年复合增长率可能接近29％。

3.4价格判断：从长远来看，很难解决供应和需求之间的矛盾，从长远来看，锂价格预计将保持很高

3.4.1锂资源的定价能力逐渐增强，推高锂价格

锂产业链的定价机制已经改变，例如，BMX电子交易平台逐渐增强了资源末端的定价能力，而锂矿山的定价机制将继续使用BMX的生产能力，并可以通过BMX的生产能力来销售lith imim inim ocy的，却可以通过年度生产量较高。 000，我们预计锂的浓缩物可能会通过BMX平台出售，因为锂的长期价格主要基于季度或年度定价，因此价格延迟，落后于锂盐的点数。 价格向上加速。

由于某些锂的销售模型逐渐变化以发现交易，因此可以重新分配工业链的利润，高质量的锂矿山可能会继续享有高保费，而在工业链中的当前链接中。其他人则很难及时地考虑到上游的现有资本支出，而在上游的供应材料公司中，很难及时满足。

3.4.2流通中锂资源的供应和需求正在收紧，供求模式变得越来越紧张

尽管将来的锂集中在现场市场上的绝对数量将在未来增加，但我们计算出的锂资源的比例将是2021年未锁定的锂资源的比例，主要是从 Salt Lake，西澳大利亚州和 的群体，以及一些散落的盐lake。生产能力（以绿色和低碳的名义，增厚的价值链和项目估值）以及 Salt Lake等人也试图与下游合作，我们期望全球未锁定的锂资源的比例下降到2024年。到2024年。锂价格由边际景点市场确定，而持续的价格会持续很高的价格。

3.4.3供求余额：新供应有限，中游放大器效应加剧了供需差距

从供求平衡的角度来看，需求仍然很强大，但是由于该行业的过度供应，并且暂停或推迟了矿山和盐湖生产能力的生产，因此2021 - 2022年的新有效供应量是有限的，并且供应可能很紧张，因此，供应量可能是在销量的范围内。在2025年再次供应。

中游产量的扩展是一种需求，这可能会使供需在下游电池公司的积极扩张下，以抓住市场份额，并与下游载体的扩展相匹配，而中线载体的扩展是在中线材料的大量增长锂提取项目进展的可能性可能会延迟，我们认为锂价格可能会在未来更长的繁荣周期中。

4钴：供应压力增加，价格可能在狭窄的范围内波动

4.1供应方面：矿山生产的恢复会增加供应压力，并且预计将在长期内投入生产镍水均能。

2021年钴产量的增加受到限制，它可能会受到2022年生产的恢复的影响，但仍保持紧张的平衡：受生产的暂停影响，2020-2021的实际产量与2019年相比已显着缩水。2020年的年度钴生产是27,400吨的急剧下降，从40.82％的造成46.82％同比3％。 是另一个全球钴供应巨头，在2020年生产了15,400吨钴，比2019年的16,100吨下降了4.11％。的钴产量为7,010吨，为全球含量增长了7,1％。未来，在全球流行病对南非物流的影响下，后来的镍矿项目的核心跟踪和再生钴的进度预计将保持紧密的平衡。

嘉能（）：嘉能（）的净利润为13亿美元，从损失到13亿美元的损失，同比增长79％。

嘉能（）宣布在2021年底重新启动该矿山，并可能在2022年贡献10,000吨钴的生产，该年度有五个铜生产线和三个氢氧化钴生产线的大幅增长，并与2010年的铜含量为2019年，并在2019年的27架coper toss toss to in in in in in Nove in Nove in Nove Ind Inle Inle the。在保养和维护方面，涉及较低的钴价格，成本上涨和税收增加，预计该矿将在2021年底之前重新启动。

Co.，Ltd。：作为世界第二大钴矿业公司，其2020年的钴生产是15,400吨，尽管它在2019年低于16,100吨，而该公司的钴产量持续下降，而与13.55％相比，该公司的生产量增长了。 ONS继续向上趋势。

的铜库矿业项目可能会在2021年底完成该项目的可行性研究，并在2022年开始建设该项目的第一阶段。我们预计它将在2024年进行生产。2020年12月， 获得了95％的公平态度的 Inly and $ 550的 and 21.基于FCX提供的数据库， 验证了铜ob矿石资源的估计结果：总资源量约为3.65亿吨矿石，平均铜等级约为1.72％，铜金属含量约为1.85亿吨，铜金属含量约为0.85％。 分析表明，铜铜矿资源丰富，铜ob矿石的平均等级很高，它具有进一步的勘探潜力，指的是已投入生产的Tenke矿山的产量，我们预计每年的钴产量为17,000吨。

印度尼西亚湿过程的镍铜项目可能会在未来贡献一定数量的钴：2021年5月，第一个镍HPAL湿过程冶炼生产线，Liqin obi -冶炼项目，将其用于生产，每年的盐氢氧化物和二氧化碳的年度输出约为37,500 and and and and and and and and and and and 。 ， 和其他各方同意在印度尼西亚建立一个较晚的镍矿湿工艺工艺项目，年产量约为120,000吨镍金属和约15,000吨钴金属，总投资约为208亿美元。 此外， 的后期镍矿湿工艺项目的每年60,000吨镍金属正在稳步发展，并且将贡献约8,000吨的钴生产能力，同时，GEM也在加速了2021年的投资。 。

在媒介中，我们预计从2020年到2025年，供应方面的初级钴的复合增长率可能达到9.9％，但从2021年到2022年的供应量的增加主要是由于未来的生产恢复，我们将重点介绍后期的镍和循环。矿石将为20％，供应将从19,600吨增加到50,400吨；与硫化物镍矿相关的年复合增长率将为0.4％，供应将从15,900吨略有增加到16,300吨。

4.2需求方面：“无钴”低于预期，而新能量车辆的共振趋势仍然存在

从需求方面，短期钴的需求主要在电池场中分布，尤其是在3C电池场中。磁性材料（2％），轮胎/干燥器（3％）和其他领域（3％）。 OPS（18％），片剂（9％），锂电池能量存储（4％）和其他3C产品（12％）。

在芯片短缺的影响下，对氧化锂的需求略低于预期，而5G替代波的到来以及对新电子产品的需求的增加，对2021年的最初11个月份，预计对317千万份的lith 氧化在第三季度的移动电话销售中，有4200万个单位增加了2.6％，这是货运期望的下降，这主要是由于供应限制的限制。 t的需求预计，未来工业链的整体产量将上升。

在电力电池方面，尽管高尼克三元的渗透率处于向上的趋势，但前体的整体市场空间具有很高的增长潜力，并且在2021年，总体消费量可能会继续增加。 GGII数据的国内三元前体出口年度的增长表明，2020年的三元前体的全球运输是420,000吨，同比增长了25.7％，而在2020年的国内货物量为330,000吨，同比增长32.5％。 根据GGII的预测，到2025年，全球三元前体的运输预计将达到160万吨，而前体产业的市场空间很广。

In the and long term, the unit of new may , but the will still . into full the three of blade and CATL's CTP the "" of iron , high is the of , and the high will also be low , we the of NCA/ in to from 30% in 2020 to 77% in 2025; in , the of , the of high such as NCMA, that after 2022, the unit for of high will show an of about 10%. 从2020年到2025年，预计新型新能量车使用的钴量的平均复合量将达到10.1％，但电池场中钴需求的平均复合增长率仍将达到24.2％，从21,000吨到62,300吨。

我们估计，从2020年到2025年，非功率电池领域的钴的需求可能会从55,700吨增加到88,800吨，平均每年的复合增长率为9.8％，主要集中在移动电话领域，这是针对4.3％的3 tw S和电子烟是新兴的3C消费电子需求，在2022年可能会带来4,400吨新的量，并且平均年度复合增长速度高达33.3％，尽管锂电池储能的安装能力可能会在磷酸盐中快速增长。 钴需求的平均复合增长率预计将达到26.3％，从1,700吨到5,500吨；

4.3供求余额：供求模式正在逐渐改善，湿过程项目是主要变量

从供求平衡的角度来看，由于尔科尔在2021年底的一部分释放了现有的生产能力，因此，供应方面有望进一步释放2022年的过度供应。同时，我们预计供应方将于2024 - 2025年开始生产，而2024/2025的钴产量将为3,000/8,000吨。

5镍：工业链整合的趋势是显而易见的，结构性矛盾推高镍价格

5.1供应方面：生产能力继续释放，供应压力逐渐出现

镍的生产增长相对稳定，供应恢复在2021年。从历史上看，镍主要用于不锈钢的生产，因此镍行业还遵循不锈钢行业的发展和变化，生产的增长相对稳定，从2015年到2020年，全球主要的镍从19100万次增长到2.39亿美元。迅速发展，供应在2021年的上半年开始恢复，而随着新能源车市场的迅速发展，镍的生产是128万吨。

有许多类型的镍产品，主要是和精制镍的产量。猿类的产品主要是和精致的镍，占91％的镍含量。稳定和增长相对困难。 将来，随着新能源汽车市场的快速发展，湿中间体和高磨砂镍的产量也将迅速增长。

China and are the main of , and will the main in the . China is a major steel , the of is also high. Due to 's rich ore and low costs, ore were from 1, 2020. A large of in , and 's grew . In 2020, China and 's for 30.2% and 24.8% of the world's total, . In 2021, 's 890,000 metal tons, China and first in the world. At , there are many under and for and in , and will to grow in the . Since is in China and , other for a low , and the is , we study the in China and .

has many iron in , but the still . In 2021, the in . were from the in July and the ban after . , the had a on the of , and the was slow. In 2021, 's iron was 890,000 metal tons, a year-on-year of 50.5%. has many under , and the is to be about 860,000 metal tons in 2022. As the in eases, the in 2022 will be than in 2021, but under the of the , the will be .

The high-grade matte has been put into , the of iron. At , the iron and steel in are by , and all of 's iron and part of its steel have also to China, my 's iron. The part of steel has also my 's . , it will be to the iron and steel of and my as a whole.

In 2021, the iron to be put into , and the . , due to my 's , the of iron was , and the . The of + China's iron was 1.32 metal tons, an of 19.9% ​​year-on-year. to the , it is that 's iron in 2022 will be 1.25 metal tons ( high-grade matte), and + China's iron will be 1.65 metal tons, an of 25% year-on-year. high-grade matte, + China's iron is to be 1.55 metal tons, an of 17% year-on-year.

In March 2021, a high-grade matte with and Co., Ltd. From 2021 to 2022, 60,000 tons and 40,000 tons of high-grade matte to and Co., Ltd., . based on 75% , the metal is to 75,000 tons. In 2022, built three high-grade matte lines, and the first batch of began to be back to my . to the , have the of 10 iron lines by the end of 2021. The of the high-grade matte is than we . At , the of iron to high-grade matte is good, and the of high-grade matte lines is to ease the of iron.

is , and low . In terms of , due to the rapid of the new , the for is . has the main of raw , and have . In 2021, my 's + will be 426,000 tons, an of 43.4% year-on-year. is ore, and the of ore are , and the and are . In 2021, my 's , in to , also a large of LME . In 2022, the in is , and LME is at a low, and the of is .

5.2 side: steel and sales are , and new to grow

In the for , the steel for 70%, and the steel has both and . is used in steel, , , and . In the , the steel for 70%, and the for 7%. Since the steel for a high , the a high rate, while the alloy and for a low , and the is , so from the of , is in the two of steel and .

On the one hand, the for steel will with the cycle. On the other hand, due to the of steel , its areas are , and it also has . From 2015 to 2020, the steel by an of 4.1% per year. In the first half of 2021, the was 29.03 tons, with a year-on-year rate of 25%. From 2015 to 2021, the rate of steel in my was 7.1%. Among the major , steel is a fast- .

is , and 300 steel and sales. steel is into 200 , 300 and 400 . The of 200 is about 4%, the of 300 is 8%, and the 400 does not . The of 300 for about 50% of steel, so the of steel on is in the 300 field. In 2021, the and , and the for steel was . by , my 's steel still a high rate. In 2021, the was 32.4 tons, an of 8.5% year-on-year, of which the of 300 was 16.3 tons, an of 9.5% year-on-year. As the steel came into , the of 300 steel . In 2021, the of 300 steel in China + was 21.31 tons, an of 21.1% year-on-year.

In the of steel, the of post-real cycle such as , , and home for about 40%, and the for more than 20%. In 2022, the real cycle will , the will still be a big year for , and the will also , and the for steel will . The 1.35 tons of 300 steel will be put into in 2022, and the steel will to in . steel is to a and sales trend. It is that the of 300 steel in China + will be about 23.6 tons, an of 10% year-on-year.

The new to grow , and the of has grown . The of and in the chain is in my , so the for on is with the world. iron in 2021, due to the rapid in sales of new , the of , and the of high , the for was . In 2021, my 's was 287,000 tons, a year-on-year of 99.9%. In 2022, new to grow , and Tesla large , and the trend of high . It is that my 's will be about 430,000 metal tons, a year-on-year of 50%.

With more wet put into , the of by will . The raw for wet , , and waste. In 2021, only the 18,000 metal tons of to the in by Liqin. my 66,000 metal tons of , an of 14% year-on-year. Due to the in the of wet and the sharp in the of , has the main of raw for . In 2021, the of in raw was 130,000 tons, an of 340% year-on-year. The used for has , in a of the gap and a of pure .

At the end of 2021, 's 60,000-ton wet has been put into , and and Liqin ' 78,000-ton are to be put into in the first half of 2022. The First wet is also to . In 2022, the in wet is large. It is that my 's of wet will be 125,000 metal tons in 2022, an of 89% year-on-year. In 2022, there will be a large in wet and high-grade matte, and the of raw will , a for . In , the of has grown , while the is at a low level, the of is , and the use of in raw will .

5.3 and are , and push up

In 2021, due to the for new and steel, and the low of wet , the for was , the and gap was , and the . As of 28, 2022, LME was 91,700 tons, 18,800 tons of plate , 72,800 tons of beans and other , and 7,800 tons of , all of which were at lows. In 2021, LME fell by 144,800 tons, 15,300 tons of plate ( are used to steel, , etc.), 129,500 tons of beans ( beans are used to ), and fell by 17,600 tons.

In 2022, on the side, with the of iron and and the of , the of will ; on the side, the real cycle is still in , the is also in a big year of , the for such as steel is still , the new rapid , and the and of are both . INSG that there will be a of 76,000 tons of in 2022. We that since the third , most have , but the gap and is still large, and due to the of the , the of may not be as as INSG , and the real cycle . We are more about the for steel. We that the and of will in 2022, and the gap is to from 134,000 tons in 2021 to 13,000 tons, and the and will still in a gap. In terms of , the tight and in the first half of the year is to , and it may ease in the half of the year, but for , may be more , and the tight and of is to solve.

In the long run, the that it would no build new coal-fired power , and such as and high-grade matte is based on coal-fired power. Group also to the 's call and that it would no build new coal-fired power . The long-term of still faces . At , there are many coal-fired power under in , which can cover the in 2022 and 2023. In , the of and are high, and have a to go into . The of will be large in the next two years. It is that from 2024, the of the of new coal-fired power will the on , and the rate of and high-grade matte will . The scale of the new will , and the for will be more . In 2025, the and of may turn to again.

The gap in is large, up. with the and of , the of is more . The and of - steel line is loose due to the in ; for , , and high-grade matte-new lines, high-grade matte to be put into , the is than , and the for to , so the gap still . Under the , in 2022, high-grade matte will an of 100,000 tons, wet- will an of 80,000 tons, and with the in other raw , raw will by 200,000 tons, while the in will be at the level of 140,000 tons, with an of 60,000 tons. In 2021, the gap in the line was at the level of 120,000 tons. Based on this, it is that there will still be a gap of 60,000 tons of in 2022. As of the end of 2021, the of will be about 110,000 tons. The tight and of is to , and will to . The the of low will the of , and the of will the force up .

5.4 The trend of chain is , and the cost of wet is to the of

At , the main to ore and . (1) : iron and matte (high matte), which is for humus-type ore with high grade; (2) : for -type ore and -- ore with low . of paths ① - , ② acid , and ③ . The of high- acid (HPAL) in ore is .

On the other hand, the high acid (EHPAL) was from the high acid (HPAL) , which uses the high acid to leach ore with a high . for the , the is the same as the high acid .

of high matte from ore: , have high matte this , but only Vale is it. The is: ① Add - (, ) to ore - 1500-1600°C (or ) - low matte - - high matte (high matte) or ② ore - RKEF - high iron - add - and then blow in - high matte.

In March 2021, that its high-grade matte line had been trial- at the end of 2020. It is able to high- high-grade matte. On the of March 1, it a high-grade matte with and Co., Ltd. The three that will 60,000 tons of high-grade matte to and 40,000 tons of high-grade matte to Co., Ltd. one year from 2021. The total metal of the two is about 75,000 tons/year. From an point of view, the of from high-grade matte is than that of from beans. , to SMM's , the full cost of using high-grade matte for or Vale to is US$14,000/ton and US$15,000/ton, , which is still high to the cost of with its own MHP. The of the pig iron-high-grade matte- will mean that the raw in the new field will be the of wet and high-grade matte, which will the raw and the of beans to a .

6 : , scale is in the

The value chain of the life cycle of new : of - of raw - of - of packs - reuse - . The and reuse of is into two : 1) of that meet the of ; 2) of that be , , , , and other , or to the value. Among them, the metal in the , , , etc. oxide as an , the and reach 2.7% and 22.8%, which have rich value.

, have the of the . from the fact that the of and , the and , the State , the of , the of and other have a of power laws, and , the pays to the field of , which has the of . On 19, 2021, the of and that it will the of power , , etc., and the of new power from the of laws, , , , , and .

and in the chain are and . has , Co., Ltd. and Co., Ltd., and has an of 65,000 tons of waste . In 2020, , a of , was into the batch of the " for of Waste Power for New " of the of and . 's and metal have a and of 34,000 tons, and will the of in the .

GEM its waste in 2003. Over the past 18 years, it has in the of a of waste and rare metal such as , , , and . It has built China's ultra-fine - base, China's base, the world's base, and China's core -ion power - raw base. It plans to a new of more than 250,000 power per year by 2025. CATL has in the of an park in , Hubei , such as the of waste . The total of the does not RMB 32 . Tesla has a on its , not to of any power on the Tesla they at will. The will hand over the to for , that they will never be or , and can 100% .

The has taken shape and may in the . -ion have been for more than 15 years, but and rates vary. For a long time, the of for reuse and has been low, and are the and to . to IEA data, the of in the world 100,000 tons for the first time in 2014. 97% of them came from . In 2019, the total of scrap for 188,000 tons, of which for 80%, by such as .

In , power for light are still rare, with about 2,775 tons of these power ( to 5,400 tons of pack ). with heavy-duty , there are about 9,200 tons of power on the . to SMM data, the of power in China in 2020 200,000 tons (about 25GWh), and the size 10 yuan. At the same time, it is that by 2027, my 's is to reach a high of 780,000 tons. This data also means that in the next five years, my 's will enter the best time for , and the scale of the will reach 226.2 yuan. With the in the of , power , the scale of the may in the . ( : Think Tank)

7 Rare earth: , with great

7.1 Rare : , the rise in rare earth was by -side , while this round is by .

the price trend of light rare , were by -side , while this round is more by :

①, 2010-July 2011: Rare earth . China's from the and began to , and rose. China and , and at the same time, down on crime and . Under the of , and rare earth .

②, 2017.5-2017.9: " crime" , . The of the " crime" and the of the rare earth and rare earth to rise. , as , rare earth , and with the , there was no , and the price was , in a .

③. 2020.11-: for rare has due to the of new , wind power , air- , and . by the cycle, sales and have , the of new has , the of of new is high, and the for rare earth is high. At the same time, in terms of , due to the of the of rare from , and other to my due to the of the , with power and in the half of 21, the plant has a , the and has , and have risen .

7.2 Rare earth : is , and the comes from the of

7.2.1 rare earth : China ranks first in the world in terms of and , and its and for 90% of the

In terms of , the world's rare earth were about 120 tons in 2020, with China first in the world with 44 tons, for 37%. 's rare earth were 22 tons, for 18%, ; 's rare earth were 21 tons, for 18%, third; 's rare earth were 12 tons, for 10%, . The of the top four rare earth for 83% of the world's total , and the of was very .

In terms of , the rare earth in 2020 was about 243,000 tons. China first in the world with 140,000 tons, for 58%. The with 38,000 tons and 16% of the world's rare earth . third with 30,000 tons and 12% of the world's rare earth . third with 17,000 tons and 7% of the world's rare earth . The top four rare earth for 93% of the world's total , and the of was also very .

China's rare earth and for more than 88% of the world's total. to data, the rare earth and in 2019 about 176,000 tons (REO), a year-on-year of 21%. Among them, China's was about 155,000 tons, for 88.2%.

7.2.2 : Rare earth are , and the four major all have and may from the quota

At , rare earth are in the hands of the four major rare earth . Rare earth and are light and rare earth; the rare earth, China (China Rare Rare Earth Co., Ltd.), of Rare Earth, , and Rare Earth, on , Hunan, , , , , , and other . On 23, China Group Co., Ltd. and led. Since then, the six major rare earth have been into four major rare earth , and the of "one south, one north, one heavy and one light" is in terms of .

from the in rare earth in years, the rare earth and in 2016-2021 a trend. The CAGR was 9.88%and 10.23%, . The index was 162,000 tons, a year-on-year of 20%. The CAGR of the mine index in 2016-2020 was 9.88%, and the index CAGR was 10.23%. The of 20%is still the same rate as 2020. to the quota and the of , it is that the quota will be mild, and the rate will be at about 20%, and there will be no .

From the of the of rare earth , in 2016-, the rare earth has the rare earth and . The in rare earth for 96%of the total , and the 4% to China Rare Earth Group Co., Ltd. in 2022.

The use of in the rare earth is low, due to , and the in is to of the of . Among them, the rare earth with the of has made the .

7.2.3 : 's rare earth mine has , and the in the US - mine

From data, it can be seen that it is to and the . are from the two major . Most of the light rare earth ores are from . , has been slow, and may even . , rare earth ore has been a major of for rare earth ore, for about 20%of the total .

In the short term, due to the of the , 's rare earth ore was ; in the long run, ore has due to blind in years. 70%of the total of rare earth ore.

In the long run, 's high - ore has due to , which has a in , in , and it may be to in the . and have when the of rare earth in have , the may also be .

mines have been full, and the is . In the of 1.5 tons of rare earth , the was 7.09%.

7.3 Rare earth side: new led, more out of the

7.3.1 High - 硼 硼 7 7 7 7 7 The most of the for the lower of rare earth

In the lower of the rare earth, the field of new for 69%, which is the main field of rare earth. 46%.

The rare earth is the third - that has been after the metal and the iron . Its and is than 60, and its is than the first- and - . 86%.

The of is in the field, and other are . such as and air may usher in high -speed , and the for high - 钕 iron boron is to huge .

It is that the high- tin iron boron will reach 191,800 tons by 2025, and the CAGR is 19.23%from 2020-2025. The for 镨钕 by this part 76,300 tons ( a ton of the metal of 28%, which is to 88%of the REO). Smart , hard disks, , - , and other are 5499, 1246, 25023, 2676, 723, -218, 6663, 2822, and 176 tons, .

We that due to the of , the oxide will usher in a large and gap in the . , ( for about 20%of the total ), the Lynas mine's rate has risen from 60%under the of the to 80%( high), and the in the of mines in long-term in 2023-2025. In 2024, the and gap was still 2815 tons. The of and gaps was 2.9%. are put into , and the and may be .

8 Key

8.1 Salt Lake : high - , salt lake is